Judges’ Queries and Presenter’s Replies

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Poster Discussion

  • Icon for: Seth Frey

    Seth Frey

    Presenter
    May 21, 2012 | 03:00 p.m.

    Hi, I’m Seth. AMA.

  • Icon for: Kristy Jost

    Kristy Jost

    Trainee
    May 21, 2012 | 06:33 p.m.

    really like the style of your video :) nice work!

  • Icon for: Seth Frey

    Seth Frey

    Presenter
    May 21, 2012 | 07:52 p.m.

    Thanks Kristy, you might like RSA Animate—nicer hands.

  • Icon for: Annie Aigster

    Annie Aigster

    Coordinator
    May 23, 2012 | 10:12 a.m.

    Nice job on the video. I enjoyed how interactive it was with your drawings.

  • Icon for: Lloyd Nackley

    Lloyd Nackley

    Trainee
    May 23, 2012 | 04:35 p.m.

    I enjoyed your presentation and animations. But, Rock paper scissors with 24 choices? ‘inconceivable!’

  • Icon for: Seth Frey

    Seth Frey

    Presenter
    May 23, 2012 | 08:26 p.m.

    Or: """But, Rock paper scissors? There’s 24 choices; I donna think that means, whatta you think it means."""

  • May 23, 2012 | 05:42 p.m.

    That was extremely well done!

  • Icon for: Seth Frey

    Seth Frey

    Presenter
    May 23, 2012 | 08:24 p.m.

    Thanks for all the nice comments. I groaned a little bit at the idea of having to do a video for this, but then I remembered that after four years my mom still doesn’t understand what I do. I figured this was my one shot. It helps that she raised us on that movie.

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    Andrew Friedman

    Guest
    May 24, 2012 | 02:09 a.m.

    Great video, Seth!

  • Icon for: Seth Frey

    Seth Frey

    Presenter
    May 25, 2012 | 10:09 a.m.

    Andrew! Thanks!

  • Icon for: Margery Hines

    Margery Hines

    Trainee
    May 24, 2012 | 07:57 p.m.

    Great video! Love the Princess Bride snippet and the video style. Also this is a very interesting topic, I’ve actually watched the “Rock-Paper-Scissors” National Championship a few times and its amazing how much people think about what they think the other person thinks.

  • Icon for: Seth Frey

    Seth Frey

    Presenter
    May 25, 2012 | 10:09 a.m.

    That blows my mind. I’ve tried, but I can’t think that fast—this project has definitely made me worse at RPS. Its got to be that they’re using tricks …

  • Small_default_profile

    Sarah Meyers

    Guest
    May 25, 2012 | 08:33 a.m.

    Seth, have you ever seen System Dynamics? I think it would be right up your alley!

  • Icon for: Seth Frey

    Seth Frey

    Presenter
    May 25, 2012 | 10:07 a.m.

    I love it. Two things from that way of thinking have had a huge influence on me:
    Place to Intervene in a System: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve_leverage_po...
    Limits to Growth: http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/307838

  • Further posting is closed as the competition has ended.

Icon for: Seth Frey

SETH FREY

Presenter’s IGERT
Indiana
Years in Grad School: 4

“What you think I think you think I think” causes cycles and flocking in multi-player Rock-Paper-Scissors

Recent provocative theories from complexity science argue that complex dynamics are ubiquitous in social and economic systems. These claims emerge from the analysis of individually simple agents whose collective behavior is surprisingly complicated. However, economists have counter-argued that iterated reasoning—our ability to think through what you think I think you think—will prevent complex dynamics and facilitate convergence to classic equilibria. Iterated reasoning is difficult to model and to test, but extant research supports economists’ defense of equilibrium theory.

We report stable periodic behavior in human groups playing a multi-player version of Paper-Rock-Scissors. The game rewarded subjects for thinking exactly one step ahead of others in their group. Groups that played this game exhibited cycles that are inconsistent with any fixed-point equilibrium concept. These cycles are also significantly more profitable than the random play that game theory calls rational. The efficient complexity of behavior in this game challenges the preconception that coordination mechanisms must converge on equilibria to be promising for social applications.

Furthermore, these cycles are driven by a “hopping” behavior that can only be explained by iterated reasoning. Iterated reasoning, which was expected to eliminate cycles, seems to be driving them. If iterated reasoning is complicit in complex dynamics, then cycles and chaos may in fact be driving fluctuations in financial markets and other real-world economic systems. This research represents the power of cognitive science, collective behavior, and dynamical systems to push the frontiers of economic behavior.